Michigan State vs Northwestern 10/23/2010

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Michigan State winning 57% of simulations, and Northwestern 43% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Michigan State commits fewer turnovers in 39% of simulations and they go on to win 68% when they take care of the ball. Northwestern wins 56% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Edwin Baker is averaging 69 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (31% chance) then he helps his team win 68%. Dan Persa is averaging 352 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (40% chance) then he helps his team win 56%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NW +6.5

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